The National Association of Paper Merchants

"Promoting the Value of the UK Paper & Board Merchant"

The NAPM supports:

Annual Forum Feedback

Bullet points from the "Round Table" discussions

Paper volumes will flatline in 2016 We are in an unusual situation where structural decline and economic drivers are suffering a multiplier effect We need to decide, do we re-adjust quickly and get ahead of the curve or do we have a lingering agony?

What will speed up decline? Higher prices for paper and print will encourage consumers of print to look at alternative communication formats. Ignorance about paper sustainability Continued economic pressures

What will slow decline? Education about sustainable nature of paper More efficient and lower cost supply chain to users of print Consumers may tire of e-bombardment and seek print as a more effective attention grabber

What could make paper more fashionable? Education about the use and effectiveness of paper. Digital print will increase the attractiveness of print due to its ability to use variable data  and images but will reduce volumes as wate will be reduced and the audience will be better targeted . Concerns about electronic security and tampering of electronic formats

Recession an excuse? Yes, clearly cost constraints and tighter budgets have put pressure on most things . However some things just work better on I pads etc.

Watchword for the paper industry. “recognize what works better than paper in alternative formats and pick the battles we want to win”

NAPM companies need to embrace Two Sides/Print power campaign totally, we cant simply leave it to them…our sales teams need to fully embrace the key messages etc.

The Paper industry must start writing letters again…lead by example especially key personnel etc.

Educate universities…Design/Art/photography/business/marketing etc etc..Two Sides employ a Paper Ambassador to tour and educate .

There is some belief that economic recovery and events such as the Olympics can help stimulate positive demand for paper.

There is always a chance that electronic media will overwhelm people and build a desire for the old ways – paper.

If you look at brewing, when I was about 20 years old, Watney Mann and Ind Coope had the brands of Red Barrel and Double Diamond, and said the days of small breweries were finished  -  CAMRA refuted this and have won.  Modern technologies mean we  now have an abundance of small micro breweries.  Where are Watneys and Ind Coope now?

If you look at films viewed in cinemas, the total market is almost the same over the last 20 years but with new innovations and multi screens.

Paper could become the differential medium.  Will this lead to a growth in special papers – directly away from where the large groups have gone with their manufacturing models.

Trend may be less volumes, higher values, a designer medium. There is a lot of potential growth still in developing countries. No-one can be sure about the flatline question, but consensus was generally that consumption still is declining but, in the future, at a slower rate than seen in last few years.

‘On the one hand’ – The group does expect it to stabilise but probably 1 or 2% up or down dependant on the sector.

‘On the other hand’ – The Group felt that the question was almost irrelevant. The industry is very big and will remain so although it will continuously compete with digital media and therefore structurally reduce.  It is up to all in the supply chain to run their own business’s accordingly and profitably.

4 Factors that will contribute to the ‘slow down’ in core business decline :Economy – the recession will end!! Advertising industry growth – and as such paper will have its place as part of this sector. Mill Groups – They will manage their capacity and utilisation more effectively and efficiently in the future giving greater balance to supply and demand. Sustainability – There is a ‘fear factor’ around the raw materials required in the manufacture of alternative products e.g. Oil – It was therefore felt that paper would be seen as a more sustainable and reliable product. 

Factors that should give us confidence that the paper industry is sustainable. Relevance of paper  – Within Advertising industry growth – using paper for the appropriate applications e.g Greetings Cards, using personalisation, effectiveness – e.g. Google – people are getting overloaded with digi comms and paper makes a refreshing change (letters, invites etc.).

Digital threat – ‘Forget it, it’s a reality!’ – Embrace it and work in areas where it compliments paper e.g. Google (trust) and ‘chikin-fil-A’.  Also the fast growth in internet printers in Germany (Printing.Com in the UK) gives hope.

It was felt that whilst paper would still play an important role in the communication media that the control of wastage by more informed targeting of marketing, direct mail etc and improved print technology is a key factor in contributing to ongoing decline.

The need to continue the battle to combat negative environmental messages was thought to be important in trying to arrest decline. Thus further endorsing the Two Sides initiative.

Paper will continue to be the preferred choice in certain sectors (Packaging seemed to be the favourite example) but any upswing in the more niche areas will not compensate for volume loss in what could be defined as commodity end use.

Interesting but not necessarily relevant to the questions posed, the 6 mill people at the table were more concerned with addressing the question “Will supply be reduced fast enough to keep pace with declining demand”? Their emphasis being on the profitability of the manufacturer rather than concern over volume. (This was likely influenced by 4 of the 6 representing non- integrated specialist mills)……bad chairmanship to allow this digression!!

Negative Factors which we cannot influence - The Economy

Negative Factors which we can influence - Perceptions on the impact of paper usage on the environment . Perceptions on the "high" cost of paper . Perceptions around the effectiveness of print v other media

What will help us at some point in time is that the current Digital and Electronic activity will be challenged!

Health and Safety - RSI - Eye testing etc.

Environment - impact on Computer and Laptop useage.

Reliability - look at Blackberry - the effectiveness of this media.

The ability or not to increase advertising revenues.

So - what must we do as an industry to counter the negative factors : Be positive as an NAPM.

BPIF and NAPM to ensure printers sell their value proposition to clients - concentrate on ROI v Digital and Electronic media

Ensure proper targetting and investment in delivering UK industry initiatives - Two Sides, Print Power, Pro skills & etc etc

Education of current and future users of paper and print - Schools/Colleges/Universities, Design Agencies & Consumers

Work together as an industry - from forestry to paper distribution to printers.

When will demand flatline? – It will not flatline. It will slow down gradually.

What will speed the decline? – Price (pulp and paper price increases). This will encourage media decision makers to look at alternatives (new media).

What will slow decline? – Education (Two Sides, Print Power etc.); Innovation. New and creative print applications. Apple greeting cards being a very good example.

Has paper become unfashionable? – Yes and we must work hard to redress the situation. We must nail the lie that paper damages the environment.

Will paper ever become fashionable again? – Only if we work hard to get the positive messages across. Paper is tactile and print is a very effective medium for delivering messages.

2011 Presentations